The likely favorite is Spring Folly (#9), who broke her maiden at second asking for trainer Michael Dickinson. While she’s done nothing wrong in her two career, starts, she was facing a pretty weak group last time. Out of Nowhere, the runner-up was the only horse in that race that did any running behind the winner, and she’s a longtime maiden. Spring Folly may have a bright future, but this is a significant jump in class.
I want to give another shot to LOVER’S KEY (#6), who nearly pulled off a stakes victory in her local debut last time.
She was projected to be the controlling speed of that race, and Jose Lezcano did ride her to the front early. However, he quickly reined her in, to such an extent that he basically surrendered her pace advantage while letting the others get into the race. Lady Joan, the eventual winner, was even with her by the time they reached the top of the stretch, and Lover’s Key couldn’t quite fend her off. This time, she’s facing a softer group, and she can stalk a pace scenario that figures to be a bit more honest. Her prior races in Florida were really good, and I think she’s better than this field.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 8,9,11
Trifecta: 6 with 8,9,11 with 3,8,9,10,11