Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:18 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
The two runners coming out of the toughest race are Summersault (#5) and Apple Betty (#9), who both exit a particularly tough edition of the New York Stakes. I thought Apple Betty ran the better race after getting a wide trip, and she’s more likely to appreciate the stretch-out to 12 furlongs. She’s probably the most likely winner, but I don’t fully trust her at a short price.
I think this is a race where we can get a little creative, so I’m picking EVIDENTLY (#6).
I know that her recent form looks inferior to that of her competitors, but she’s had excuses. She got a ridiculous ride two back at Tampa Bay Downs when working out a wide trip, and then she was totally against a slow pace last time (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). She’s really best at these marathon distances, which she showed last fall when winning the Long Island Handicap. If Manny Franco can keep her a bit closer to the pace early, I think she can use her late speed to work her way into the mix. The price should be generous.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,8,9
Trifecta: 9 with 1,3,5,8 with 6