Belmont | Race 7 | Post Time 4:46 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
Paz the Bourbon (#3) is the deserving favorite in this spot. She’s run well in all of her turf starts, and made a successful return to the races in her seasonal debut last time out. While that race came against allowance company, she actually is not facing a tougher field in this spot. I have no major knocks against the favorite, but I’m far more interested in another runner.
LOVER’S KEY (#2) has been steadily stepping up in class and keeps winning despite having received some truly ridiculous rides. When she won her maiden three back, she was needlessly put into a drive on the far turn, ended up drifting about seven or eight paths off the rail while alone up front, and still won. Then, last time, she made a premature middle move after a runaway leader and ultimately forced the race to collapse. Yet somehow she won again. She’s finally getting a rider switch here, and it’s a very positive one. Seven furlongs should be perfect for her, and she’s one of the few runners with speed in a race that is predicted to favor horses on or near the lead.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4,7