Projected (#2) probably is the most talented runner in this race, and he may win at a short price. He confirmed his quality when finishing just ahead of Divisdero two back at Keeneland. Projected then worked out a perfect trip in the Dixie last time, beating his stablemate Catapult. I’m not really against Projected in this spot, who does deserve to be favored, but I do think that his stablemate will narrow the margin today.
It looks like CATAPULT (#6) will finally find himself in a situation where his rider can just let him set the pace in the early going. This horse tends to get very rank in his races, as he did in the Dixie, and often it’s better to just let these horses run off and get comfortable. Catapult does have serious ability, but his unwillingness to settle in his races often detracts from his finishing kick. If Jose Ortiz can get him to relax in this new running style today, I expect him to be tough to hold off. Indeed, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead. Furthermore, the turf course should still be good or yielding, and Catapult has shown he handles grass courses that have taken some rain.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,4,7