Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs
Although she is being asked to overcome an odd turnback in distance, Swiss Range (#4) is nevertheless the horse to beat in this spot. While she has rarely sprinted, Bill Mott actually has done well in these situations. According to DRF Formulator, he is 12 for 46 (26 percent) with an ROI of $2.82 with turnbacks on turf at NYRA over the past five years. That said, this classy mare will have to deal with some fast competitors in this spot.
Others to consider include Elegant Supermodel (#2), who had legitimate trouble in the stretch last time and now turns back to a preferred sprint distance, and Seeking Paradise (#5), who finished right there in a number of races at this level last year and now returns from a layoff.
I don’t think I’ll get anything close to her 15-1 morning line odds, but I have to bet RUMBLE DOLL (#8) in this spot. I realize that she is not predicted to get much pace to close into, but I still think she is the right horse to bet here. Her recent form is much stronger than it appears to be. Last time, in her first start back off the layoff, she was buried down inside at the quarter pole and was forced to steady at a critical point in the race. She again encountered traffic once into the stretch and actually did well to get up for third. Now she gets back to six furlongs, which is closer to her best distance. Robert Falcone Jr. gets a 99 Trainer Rating when pairing with Joel Rosario, who has ridden this mare successfully in the past.
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,6,7