Belmont Highlight Horse for Sunday: Longshot Pagliacci is in better form than it appears

Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs 

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Jimmy Jerkens has two runners in this race who are coming off extended layoffs. Three Perfections (#7) is likely to take more money, and he can certainly win this race, but I think Cloontia (#11) is the more interesting of the two. He was involved in a very fast pace in his 2016 finale. Mighty Mo, who was also contesting the pace, came back to win in his next start last fall, so there’s reason to believe that Cloontia ran much better than it appears in that race. I’ll use him strongly, but there’s another runner at an even bigger price that intrigues me.

 

PAGLIACCI (#4) won his debut on turf and then was simply overmatched against some of the best horses in the 3-year-old turf division in the Palm Beach in his next turf start. He also did not get an ideal trip in that race after racing wide around both turns. Next time out at Keeneland he actually ran deceptively well when setting the pace over a surface that was favoring horses making outside closing moves. Note the blue color-coded race-rating box in the TimeformUS PPs, indicating a closers’ bias. Pagliacci is probably better on turf and he gets back to that preferred surface here.

I’ll use him with the Cloontia, as well as Bealestreet Dancer (#2), who got a very wide trip last time and is capable of doing better here.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 4

Exacta Box: 2,4,11

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7

Trifecta: 4,11 with 2,4,7,11 with 2,3,4,7,11

 

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2 Responses to Belmont Highlight Horse for Sunday: Longshot Pagliacci is in better form than it appears

  1. Clinton Parks says:

    Matter of fact I wouldn’t bet this race. My Rule #2 Never bet a race if the Morning line favorite scratched. But if I did bet it would be Exacta 8-11-10 on top 3-7-8-11-10 on bottom if a Trifecta the show would be 3-6-7-8-10. May not be better but first time challenging Aragona, I think he sucks

    Like

  2. Clinton Parks says:

    well…I have a pretty good indicator on who and how not to bet this race. I swear Aragona has one of the worst records for picking races.

    Like

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