Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
The two shortest prices on the morning line are Tasit (#8) and Tiznoble (#9). Both are coming off solid efforts out of town. Tasit most recently returned from a lengthy layoff to finish a closing fourth at Keeneland, but I thought that his late run was somewhat of an illusion in a race that set up well for the closers. Tiznoble was a strong second to multiple stakes winner Chocolate Ride last time at Fair Grounds, but his trainer, Mike Stidham, who has enjoyed plenty of success at over venues, gets just a 50 Trainer Rating on the NYRA circuit.
Instead, I’m taking ADVENTIST (#2), a horse with far less turf experience than the aforementioned duo.
I know the race did not come up particularly fast in terms of speed figures, but Adventist’s turf debut is worth watching. He was allowed to lope along leisurely at the back of the pack in the early stages of that race but absolutely inhaled his rivals when asked to go at the top of the stretch. He’s moving up in class off that effort, but trainer Mike Maker does remarkably well with runners coming off wins in turf routes. Over the past five years, he is 117 for 401 (29 percent) with a $2.09 ROI in those situations – impressive stats given the large sample size. Adventist had shown real ability despite racing greenly in his early dirt races and appears to have finally found his true calling on turf.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,8,9
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8,9 with ALL