We just did a webinar with the DRF guys on How To Use TimeformUS PPs. Whether you’re new to TimeformUS or are a longtime user, it’s worth checking out. Here’s the video on YouTube:
Coming out of the webinar, there were a number of questions that viewers sent in that we’d like to answer here:
Q: So the TimeformUS Speed Figure is like evaluating a basketball player over 48 min rather than the amount of time played?
A: That’s an interesting comparison, though perhaps not ideal. TimeformUS Speed Figures utilize a horse’s pace figures in each section of the race–and every horse does run in each section of the race (so they play the full “48 minutes”). A better comparison might be two basketball players, one who is deeply engaged in the flow of the game on both ends of the floor for 48 minutes vs one who is hanging around the basket just waiting for rebounds. TimeformUS SPeed Figures rewards the athlete who is more vidorously engaged throughout a game.
Q: Do you adjust for quality of stock on trainer ratings?
A: TimeformUS’s Overall trainer ratings do not downgrade trainers who are successful by only running cheaper horses. But the key word in the last sentence is “Overall”. By clicking on a trainer’s name in each horse’s PPs you can see situational trainer ratings that will reveal whether he has success at today’s class level, track, and more.
Q: How is the race rating determined? Is it driven by purse or condition?
Q: does the race rating look at next out winners from the horse’s past performances?
A: TimeformUS Race Ratings are determined exclusively by an algorithm that considers the recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of the horse’s in today’s race. The Race Rating for a given race is then adjusted based on the figures earned on track.
We feel this method is typically far superior to looking at race conditions to determine the quality of a field, though expanded race conditions are available by clicking on the “oval” in every running line:
Q: I see races where a horse won with a higher PF than the race PF. Is the race PF not adjusted later or is the race PF some kind of average?
A: OK, let’s unpack this one. We think what you’re referring to is a scenario in which a horse ran very fast early (the 130 Pace Figure below), which affected his Final Time Figure (the 96 below). In that situation, the Final Time Figure is algorithmically adjusted to reflect the totality of his effort (the TimeformUS Speed Figure of 101 below).
Q: Does the number of horses in the race, say 20 in the Kentucky Derby, complicate the calculations and the Pace Projector?
A: Yes, the Projector’s algorithm adjusts to reflect particularly large field sizes. There are multiple dynamic in play there that tends to accelerate the early pace, but it’s worth keeping in mind that we’ve seen horses sit just off of fast early Derby pace scenarios and still go onto win. American dirt racing typically favors early speed.
Q: If you have a race rated 75 and one’s race 80 is it 5 lengths better?
A: value of one length on TimeformUS Speed Figures (approx)
1/4 mile, 6 points
1/2 mile, 3 points
5 furlongs, 2.4 points
6 furlongs, 2.0 points
7 furlongs, 1.7 points
8 furlongs, 1.5 points
9 furlongs, 1.4 points
10 furlongs, 1.3 points
12 furlongs, 1.1 points
The pace numbers are also on the same scale.
Q: in what format do the PPs arrive? Pdf’s? How long are they workable?
A: Because the TimeformUS data is automatically adjusted based on scratches and displays live odds, the ideal format for looking at TimeformUS PPs is on a screen, whether a large PC monitor or smaller tablet screen. But we also offer TimeformUS in saveable PDF formats, typically used by our customers if they’re not going to have internet access when playing the races. The PDFs are available in the PP interface, and they are saveable.
Q: Ways to use red/blue ratings in previous races to indicate if a horse was up against a difficult trip and how that bodes for today’s performance?
A: Two helpful links:
Q: What would “running style” say if it was a maiden race full of first timers?
A: If a race is full of unraced horses, it would neither indicate their running style or produce a Pace Projector. After a single start, TimeformUS will begin to make projections on running style while making adjustments for factors such as improvement in a horse’s second career start.
Let us know if you have any more questions…