Aqueduct Sunday Highlight Horse: Longshot Loyal Heart has a shot to make the trifecta

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

The two top choices on the morning line, Smile Big (#4) and She’s So Fine (#10), figure to be tough to beat. Smile Big overcame that Jan. 13 rail bias to finish a decent second at this level last time, and She’s So Fine steps up in class after putting in a dazzling stretch run against weaker foes. At a slightly bigger price, I would also want to strongly use Dreams to Reality (#5), who showed promise early in her 3-year-old season before going off form. She returns from the layoff for Michael Dilger.

All three of these fillies look pretty formidable, but I nevertheless want to highlight a longshot in this field, LOYAL HEART (#7). I’m hardly suggesting that this selection is more likely to win than any of the three aforementioned fillies, but I do believe she has a chance to crack the trifecta at a huge price. There is not much speed signed on for this event, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that should favor horses on or near the lead. That should help Loyal Heart, who was fast enough to make the lead at six furlongs two back.

paceprojector_feb5-race7

Last time, Loyal Heart lost all chance when she threw her head just as the gates opened and spotted the field many lengths. All things considered, she did well to get up for third. This is a tougher spot, but she appears to be in good form and has a pace advantage. I worry about the low-percentage rider that the connections are using, but you often have to take the bad with the good when you’re trying to get 30-1 shots home.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,10

Trifecta: 4,5,10 with 2,4,5,10 with 7

 

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