Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
ROLL TIDE ROLL (#3) put in a rare poor performance last time after finishing in the exacta in 10 of his prior 11 starts. However, upon closer inspection, that sixth-place finish is not nearly as disappointing as it might look at first glance. While the pace of that race was not color-coded as fast in TimeformUS PPs, the track had really changed at that point on the card. Whereas inside speed had been dominant early in the day, by the time this race was run, the track was much more tilted toward closers. This race in particular was completely dominated by late runners making outside moves, so Roll Tide Roll was completely against the flow. He actually did well to hang on as well as he did considering where the other pace players finished.
This time, Roll Tide Roll finds himself in a more favorable situation. Kendrick Carmouche figures to use him aggressively out of the gate, but he doesn’t need the lead and should work out a perfect trip stalking Imasuperstar.
Tashreeh (#9) is certainly going to take money off his win against starter-allowance foes last time out, which earned him the highest speed figures in the field – a 92 Beyer and a 111 TimeformUS figure. However, he accomplished that win with the aid of a strong inside speed bias Dec. 17. His prior races are not nearly as strong, and he actually lost to Roll Tide Roll twice last fall.
When looking for runners to use with my top selection, I’m more interested in the turnbacking Jet Black (#2), who has run plenty of competitive sprint races, and Imasuperstar (#8), who also was hindered by race dynamics in that Jan. 14 race. I could even throw in the closer Lazarus Project (#7), who usually gets a piece of the purse but rarely wins.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,7,8,9
Trifecta: 3 with 2,7,8,9 with 2,7,8,9