Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs
Ever since his win in the Tale of the Cat last summer at Saratoga, Stallwalkin’ Dude has been at the top of his game. He has racked up three stakes wins and placed in a couple of Grade 1 events during that time. The David Jacobson trainee is coming into this race in strong form after a decisive win the Gravesend, overcoming a moderate early pace and traffic on the far turn by unleashing a devastating stretch rally. On the other hand, that race was run over a muddy surface and Stallwalkin’ Dude is typically at his best over wet tracks. He is a deserving favorite in the Toboggan, but he does have some obstacles to overcome, and it’s not as if scared off any of his Gravesend rivals as three are back in the starting gate today.
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that will favor Green Gratto, who is now forecasted to be loose on the lead after the scratch of The Great War. No one else is fast enough to stick with Green Gratto early, but I would imagine that runners like Story to Tell, Classy Class, and Life in Shambles will be in the first flight chasing him. Life in Shambles and All Star Red both ran reasonably well in the Gravesend. They went three and four wide around the far turn, respectively, and stayed on nicely in the lane. I certainly want to use them underneath in exotics, but I think they’ll be hard-pressed to catch the projected front-runner, or hold off Stallwalkin’ Dude.
While I respect the favorite, my top pick in the Toboggan is GREEN GRATTO (#1).
Slowly but surely this New Jersey-bred has been cycling back into top form. He first showed signs of his old self in the Bold Ruler three back, and his two efforts since have been steps in the right direction. Despite the fact that he typically is not at his best over wet racetracks, he showed grit in the late stages of the Gravesend, battling back for second after getting passed by heavy favorite Stallwalkin’ Dude in the last eighth. You can be sure that Kendrick Carmouche will be sending this horse from the rail, and I think he may still have it in him to turn the tables on his rival.
Trifecta: 1, 6 with 1, 6 with 2, 5, 7
Trifecta: 1, 6 with 2, 5, 7 with 1, 6