Liz’s Cable Girl (#4) was quite the surprise in her debut, winning by more than 10 lengths at odds of more than 35-1. However, there was nothing fluky about that performance and she is a serious threat to wire this field. Both her Beyer Speed Figure and TimeformUS Speed Figure indicate she is simply the fastest horse in this race. Further, the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts she will be loose on the lead early in a situation favoring the front-runner. While I respect this filly, I simply have to bet one of her competitors in this spot.
I believe that the most likely winner of this race is TIZ RAE ANNA (#2).
Absolutely nothing went right last time for this filly. She stumbled at the start and was squeezed back to last early. She was then completely blocked for almost the entire duration of the race, only getting clear in the final sixteenth of a mile when the race was essentially over. She then proceeded to gallop out in a fashion suggesting she had much more to give. The winner of that race, Toni Tools, came back to win a stakes – albeit with a great setup – and Tiz Rae Anna had dominated today’s rival Summer of Joy in their previous meeting. She needs to improve slightly to beat Liz’s Cable Girl, but I think she’s up to the task.