The two shortest prices on the morning line are Kalabaka and Catsadiva, but I don’t really want either one of them. These two are exiting the same race on Dec. 2. While Kalabaka undoubtedly put in the better effort that day, earning a career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure, we’ve seen this act from her before. She’s racked up 8 second place finishes in 12 career starts, and is just not a reliable win candidate. Catsadiva is going to take money here as well, but I find her even harder to support. She had no excuse last time and has never produced an effort that makes her particularly formidable against this field.
Old Valyria is an intriguing new face in this spot, and must be respected as she goes out for the unstoppable Rudy Rodriguez barn. However, her lone dirt race was not a good effort and it’s doubtful that she’s going to offer significant value given her connections.
The horse that I want instead is JET MAJESTY (#6).
I know that she’s been campaigned primarily on turf lately, but she has run plenty of dirt races that would put her in the mix against this field. Further, she’s one of the few runners with speed in the race and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the frontrunners. David Jacobson does well first off the claim (89 TimeformUS Trainer Rating), and particularly well with horses switching from turf to dirt off the claim (DRF Formulator Fact: 21 for 63, $2.63 ROI, over the past five years).
I’ll bet this mare to win, and will use her with Kalabaka (#1) and Old Valyria (#5). I could even throw in Myfourchix (#3), who may not be quite up to the task off an eight-month layoff, but does have plenty of races in her past performances that can beat this field.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5