The 2/1 morning line favorite is Super Surprise (#5), who is coming off a disappointing loss as the favorite last time. However, that performance was clearly flattered by the winner, Highway Star, coming back to upset the Go For Wand last weekend. Super Surprise had previously won the Fleet Indian around two turns at Saratoga, so there’s no reason to be concerned with today’s distance.
However, when looking back at that Fleet Indian, you could make a case that MECKE’S MADALYN (#2) didn’t run that much worse than the winner.
Whereas Super Surprise looped the field, Mecke’s Madalyn got mired down inside and had to wait in traffic while losing momentum late. She’s clearly in the best form of her career right now, and she’s guaranteed to be a much better price than the favorite.
I also have to use older horses like First Service (#7), who stretches out, and Jules N Rome (#8), who should appreciate getting back out to two turns, but they have to avoid setting a pace that’s too quick. If the pace really falls apart, however, I would even throw in Literata (#1), who is in better form than it appears, underneath in exotics.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7,8