While I don’t quite expect to get him at his 20/1 morning line odds, I do think LYRICAL MIRACLE (#2) is a very interesting long shot proposition in this race. While plenty of runners in this race have run faster speed figures, the fact remains that he is the only confirmed frontrunner in the field and one of the few horses in here that aren’t typically closers.
The Pace Projector depicts him on a clear lead early in a situation favoring the frontrunner, and Angel Arroyo has ridden this horse before and knows to use his speed. You can ignore his recent turf races; he’s actually taking a significant drop in class off his prior dirt efforts. Furthermore, he’s run some of the very best races of his career over this main track at Aqueduct. Current form is a concern, but now is the time to catch him at a decent price if he can still run.
As far as the others go, horses like Derby Glass (#7), Don Dulce (#8), and Point Hope (#10) have all at some point during the year run races fast enough to make them the winners today. However, each of them is coming off a subpar effort, and they are all competing in this bottom-level claiming race for a reason. I have to use them in exactas and trifectas, but they are not easy to trust. I would also throw in Erik the Red (#3), who actually put in a decent effort last time. A mile may be stretching it for him, but at least he’s one of the few runners with back class who may be on the upswing again.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,8,10