The pace of this race does need to be discussed, and I’ll get to that. However, assuming that every horse gets a fair chance, I believe that CELTIC CHAOS (#3) will win this race based purely on talent.
This three-year-old has been steadily improving over the course of this year, and I feel confident that he is set to turn the tables on runners like True Bet and John’s Island, who both finished ahead of him last time. For whatever reason, Eric Cancel was content to let Celtic Chaos drop some 10 lengths off the front as the leaders set a leisurely pace. Given the huge deficit he had to make up, it’s amazing that he somehow got within two lengths of the winner at the wire after unleashing a determined stretch rally. I have to think that Jose Ortiz will keep him closer to the pace today, and that may be all he needs to come out on top.
I know the Pace Projector is favoring lone speed True Bet (#4), but he almost always finds someone to run him down. Furthermore, we’re guaranteed to have another wet track on our hands, which is supposed to help Celtic Chaos. As far as the others go, John’s Island (#2) appears to have lost a step, and I believe Celtic Chaos possesses a stronger finish these days. That said, a wet track does move him up as well.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,5