Nouvelle Vague (#2) is going to be a strong favorite here based on general faith in Chad Brown, but there’s not a lot to recommend about this horse based on her lone U.S. start. I have to use her, but I think there is value to be found elsewhere in this race.
A number of runners are coming out of the eighth race on November 6, and the one that may have run the best on that occasion is runner-up ROSEDALE ARCH (#3), who is a major player today. She showed a new dimension coming from off the pace and did so in a race that did not set up for late runners. She’ll be a big part of my play, but my top pick is a runner that figures to offer even greater value.
SARATIAGO (#9) has certainly had a lot of chances, but her last couple of turf races suggest that she may have turned a corner. She was against the pace on September 23, but was finishing fastest of all late while only losing to Table for Six—who would be a strong favorite here—by a length. Then last time she was again facing tougher company but was compromised by a four-wide run around the far turn. Rajiv Maragh has been riding the turf well lately, and I think he’ll be looking to save more ground today. If there’s any pace at all, I think she can make a late impact.
Exacta Key Box: 3,9 with 2,3,7,9,10,12
Trifecta Key Box: 3,9 with 3,9 with 2,7,10,12