The obvious trip horse in this race is Life in Shambles (#4), but I’m a little hesitant to make him my top selection given that I doubt he’s going to offer substantial value. There is no doubt that he was best last time after having to steady out of position on the backstretch and then re-rally around the entire field into a slow pace (color-coded in blue). That said, this horse always seems to take too much money, and he may find himself up against it from a pace standpoint again today.
Given that likely scenario, I prefer the controlling speed, BIG GUY IAN (#3).
He’s been involved in fast paces (color-coded in red) in three of his last four dirt starts. Ignore a couple of misguided turf attempts and he’s actually been in pretty good form this year despite not winning. His effort against the hard-knocking Green Gratto over the summer as well as his most recent effort at Parx both garnered speed figures of 120 or higher, which would make him awfully tough to beat today. Six furlongs seems like the right distance, and the Pace Projector clearly indicates that the race flow will be in his favor.
I’ll focus on these two in exactas and trifectas, and could use any of the others to round out the remaining slots. Eighty Three (#5) would represent the biggest danger if he were to get back to his efforts prior to the layoff, but he’s not the easiest horse to trust. At bigger prices, Classy Class (#1) has a right to step forward in his second start back and even Alex the Terror (#6) has some races that would make him awfully tough in here.
Exacta Box: 3,4
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL
Trifecta: 3,4 with ALL with 3,4