This race figures to be dominated by the three-year-olds. Recent maiden winner Richmond Street (#9) finally got the job done last time after running into some tough maiden fields prior to that. It was certainly no disgrace losing to repeat winners Deeply Undervalued and Sadler’s Joy two and three back. Bill Mott gets a 90 trainer rating with horses that broke their maidens last time out, so it will be no shock if Richmond Street continues to step forward today.
While I certainly respect the aforementioned runner, I expect that he will face a stiff challenge from my top selection MANITOULIN (#1).
This son of Awesome Again is in better form than his last couple of races suggest. He didn’t get the right trip at Saratoga two back when he was wide around the far turn in a race dominated by horses closer to the pace and on the rail. Then last time, he was stuck in behind a wall of horses in the stretch of the Dueling Grounds Derby and may have finished closer if he had ever gotten clear. He’s run the two best races of his career at this distance and I think we’re going to see his best effort yet today.
Call Provision (#4) is also going to take some money in this spot, but he’s unproven at the distance and seems to do his best work against slightly weaker company. Hardly Home (#5) and Gio’s Calling (#7) are coming out of the same race at Keeneland on October 9. Gio’s Calling had the tougher trip that day, but both are suspect stretching out in distance. I’ll use all three of these as backups, as well as underneath in trifectas.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,9
Trifecta: 1,9 with 1,9 with 4,5,7