I believe the horses coming out of the Knickerbocker are the most talented runners in this race. That said, the horse that I want the least out of that affair is Heart to Heart (#10), who had everything his own way on the front end, setting a slow pace (color-coded in blue) while uncontested. Today, he has to break from the outside post position and deal with the speedy Macagone (#3), who himself is not out of this by any stretch. If Irad Ortiz is not aggressive enough early and elects to rate Heart to Heart, that will certainly compromise his chances, since he is not nearly as effective from off the pace.
I strongly prefer Jay Gatsby (#1) and BLACKTYPE (#5), the latter of which should be a better price despite the fact that he was even more severely compromised by dynamics last time.
Jay Gatsby was given his best chance by Javier Castellano, who used his mount just enough early to get into a stalking position, which allowed him to nearly win the race despite an unfavorable pace setup. That was not the case with Blacktype, who was behind and between horses near the back of the pack for the entire race. By the time he got clear in the stretch, the race was already over, but he still did well to secure third. Many will perceive Jay Gatsby as being the classier horse, but I think Blacktype is better suited to today’s one-mile distance. He gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz and has been in great form lately for Christophe Clement.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3,6,8,10 with 1