I’m not sure that I really want anyone out of the October 19 race that so many of these are exiting. Bay of Plenty (#4) ran well enough, but he had everything his own way racing on an uncontested lead and will likely have to face pace pressure today. Both Weekend Express (#3) and Ice Cutter were a little wide in a race dominated by horses that rode the rail, but neither one had any late kick in the stretch. Of the short-priced runners, Fire Away (#5) actually intrigues me the most off his last start at Keeneland, in which he overcame a slow pace. However, that was seven months ago, and he may need his first start back off the layoff.
Given the fact that I can find holes in all of the major contenders, I’m taking a shot with MISTER BRIGHTSIDE (#6). This horse has run better than it appears in both starts since returning from the layoff. He was off slowly and compromised by a slow pace over a distance that was too short for him two back. Then last time, in the Commonwealth, he was chasing a fast pace and lost momentum when stuck in behind the tiring frontrunner in the stretch. Today, he should work out a more favorable trip in midpack, sitting off what is predicted to be an honest pace up front. He has back races that make him very dangerous here, and the price should be fair.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,9