This is one of a few very difficult turf races on this card. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I think there are reasons to be a bit optimistic if you’re interested in a horse with speed—which I am.
It clearly shows MORETHANJUSTHELLO (#2) out in front early, but the runners that figure to be racing behind her, forcing the pace, are not exactly need-the-lead types, or even primarily frontrunners. So often we see riders concede to the one horse that shows early initiative, making for a much slower pace than anticipated, and I have a feeling we could see a similar scenario play out here.
As long as Morethanjusthello doesn’t have to run too fast to get position towards the front of the pack, I think she’s a major threat to win this race. After all, her recent form is better than it appears. She was overmatched in some tough spots over the summer, but she ran quite well last time against some decent allowance horses. I’m not at all concerned with the stretch-out to two turns, since she’s handled route distances in the past and even owns a win over this course.
Beyond my top selection, this race is fairly wide open. I don’t expect the entry to offer much value, but both halves are certainly contenders in this race. Closers like Ultimate Cause (#3), Miss Aja Brown (#5), and Shiawassee (#6) would all be helped by a strong pace up front, if it materializes.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6,7,9