Glennevan (#4) is the horse to beat as he steps up in class. However, as fine of a job as David Donk does, do you really trust this horse to replicate his recent performance for David Jacobson? Furthermore, while this field isn’t that much stronger than the ones he’s been facing, he is stepping up in class as he goes for his third win in a row. He must be used in some capacity but I think we can try to beat him today.
Obvious alternative Roman Revival (#1) should be setting the pace and is certainly a threat to wire the field. His last race did come against a stronger bunch, but he was still fairly dull after failing to make it to the front. Patton Proud (#2) is a wild card, since he’s run some of the fastest speed figures but hasn’t started since the summer. Gary Gullo does a great job, but this drop in class and low-profile rider do not inspire great confidence.
I think they’re all going to have a hard time holding off TOO WILD TO REPENT (#5). The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be sitting right off of Roman Revival early in a situation favoring horses racing close to the front. Last time, he had to rally from last place after getting shuffled back along the rail in the opening furlongs. He actually ran quite well to get up for third that day in a race where no one else made significant closing moves. Today, he’s drawn outside and should show the tactical speed that was on display back in June. He was in the best form of his career before heading to the sidelines five months ago, and his return effort suggests he may be set to pick up where he left off.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,4 with ALL