Itsonlyactingdad (#2) is the horse to beat as she drops in class out of a decent effort behind Lady Eli in the Flower Bowl. There’s no guarantee that she’s going to love a mile and a half, but she also didn’t get the best of setups in the Glens Falls two back, her only previous time trying a marathon distance. I respect her, but she’s going to be a short price just because the rest of this field lacks proven graded stakes form, so I want someone else on top.
How about PALINODIE (#9), as she makes her first start in the U.S? Christophe Clement gets a 98 trainer rating with overseas shippers, and this filly has progressed nicely since making her debut in the spring, cycling up to a respectable 113 Timeform rating last time. She kept company with some eventual Group 2 winners in her first couple of starts and I like the confident placement with no layoff. It’s not as if this is the toughest Long Island Handicap we’ve ever seen, and I think she’s already proven that she possesses enough quality to be competitive against this bunch.
Others that merit consideration are Swear By It (#4), who may just be an improved horse over these marathon distances, Evidently (#5), who was compromised by having to make a wide early move on the far turn, and Achnaha (#6), who is often closing for a piece in these races but rarely wins.
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,5,6