Of the two Chad Brown runners, Grey Stark (#1) figures to take all the money. She may not have wanted to go a marathon distance up at Saratoga and now gets cut back to a more reasonable mile and a sixteenth. While I respect her, she did get a perfect setup when she won at Saratoga two back, and I’m not sure she has as great of an edge over this field as the odds are likely to indicate. Furthermore, she’s raced on only firm turf courses during her career and is unproven over the softer conditions she’ll face today.
Given a much more palatable price, I actually prefer Chad Brown’s other horse, SYMPATHY (#6).
Throw out this filly’s last race, since she was used as a rabbit and set suicidal fractions before succumbing to a group of superior runners. I’m also willing to be forgiving of her effort two back, since that race was dominated by horses that rode the fresh ground next to the hedge, and she was never on the rail at any point. Her effort three back gives her a big chance here, and I like that Javier Castellano climbs aboard. She also has run well over courses that have taken some rain, both abroad and since coming to the United States, so I’m not as worried about the conditions she’ll encounter today.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 5,7 with 1,5,7