I don’t trust either of the short prices on the morning line. Wembley (#3) ran races earlier this year that would crush this field, but her return from the layoff was just dreadful, and I’m concerned that she may have gone the wrong way. The Jeremiah Englehart entry (#1) also figures to take money, but I’m not exactly confident in either half relishing this one-mile distance. Instead, I prefer a relatively new face.
MAMA JOYCE (#2) has raced in a dirt route only once in her career, and it was her best effort. Sure, she beat up on slightly weaker competition that day, but the 96 speed figure that she earned makes her competitive here, and runners have come out of that race to improve in subsequent starts. I can’t hold her turf races against her, since she apparently detests that surface, and I see no reason why she shouldn’t get back to her stronger dirt form.
The Pace Projector is predicting that she is the speed from the inside in a situation that favors the frontrunner. Rain in the forecast is an unknown for many in this race, but at least she’s handled the wet tracks that she’s encountered up until this point.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,6