Detail (#4) will be everyone’s trip horse after she obviously should have won her last race. Irad Ortiz made a poor decision to move inside behind a tiring frontrunner approaching the stretch, and he cost his mount the victory. However, she was facing only three rivals that day, and this field is undoubtedly deeper than the group she faced last time. She can win, but I prefer another runner at a bigger price.
ONE PENNY PIECE (#10) has been subtly improving over recent starts for Phil Serpe. Two back at Saratoga, she was one of the only runners to make a late impact into a race that was wired on the front end through slow fractions, and last time she again did well to close into an extremely slow pace (color-coded in blue) for the seven furlong distance. One mile is a better distance for her, and I think the presence of Debbie’s Tude (#2), who has a tendency to run off early and set fast paces (note all the red running lines in her PPs), should ensure that early fractions are at least honest.
I would use her with the aforementioned Debbie’s Tude, who has run plenty of races that make her competitive here and will be dangerous if she transfers her out-of-town form to the NYRA circuit. I could also throw in long shot Reversiontothemean (#6), who gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz and has been knocking on the door at this level.
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6