I don’t trust Sicilia Mike (#5), the morning line favorite. His last speed figure makes him the horse to beat, but I find that number to be somewhat unreliable. Instead, I’m looking at horses coming out of other races.
Mission Leader (#11) will certainly be tough as he drops out of a tougher maiden race, from which both Heavy Meddle and Fled have come back to do well. He didn’t take much money that day and figures to be the main speed in his second start for Kiaran McLaughlin. I view him as the most likely winner of this race, but I highly doubt we’re going to get anything close to his 12/1 morning line.
The horse that interests me most at what should be a huge price is CONSTANT KNIGHT (#8).
I know he was beaten by Conquest Prankster (#1) last time, but that one had everything his own way on the front end. Constant Knight was hindered by a pace that held together and was steadied briefly at the top of the stretch, which may have cost him some momentum. His prior race at Monmouth was actually a decent effort and we’ve seen a few horses run back out of that race to significantly improve their speed figures. I actually don’t mind this rider switch and feel that this horse is a live long shot.
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,11
Trifecta: 8,11 with 8,11 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 1,5,11 with 1,5,11 with 8