This is probably the most interesting race on the card, and not the kind of race where I would settle for short prices—horses like Manipulated, who has dubious turf pedigree, and Fearthefalcon, who is coming off a perfect trip against a softer field. The one that I want to take a shot with is LUCKY TOWN (#7).
This gelding broke his maiden at this seven furlong distance, so you know he’ll get the trip. He ran three times at Saratoga, and I don’t think he had an opportunity to show his best form in any of those races. Five and a half furlongs may be too short for him, and in his pair of two-turn races, he set very fast paces, which made it impossible for him to get the distance. This was especially true last time when his rider sent him up to force a pace that was already quick, ultimately causing the race to collapse late. We saw the pacesetter, The J Y, come back out of that race to win, so I expect Lucky Town to give a better account of himself here. This rider is usually aggressive and should take advantage of a situation that is predicted on our Pace Projector to favor horses on or near the lead.
Among the more interesting alternatives to the favorites are Lotta Gold (#1), who may appreciate this turnback after getting a terrible trip two back at Saratoga; Go Go Lucky (#3), who makes his first start for the hot Danny Gargan barn; Worbothor (#4), who has come to life in recent starts and may not mind getting back to turf; Fear (#10), who figures to be a bigger price than Fearthefalcon despite running just as well last time; and I Win (#11), an intriguing long shot that makes some sense if you throw out his non-effort last time.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,10,11