Mr. Harlan (#3) is a deserving favorite on the morning line. If he repeats his last race, he is supposed to win today. However, this is a horse that has struggled with consistency in the past. Perhaps he will be able to put top efforts back to back now that he is in the barn of Linda Rice, but I have some reservations given the likely short price.
The horse that most will focus on out of the August 27 allowance race is Lead by Example (#8), who had to overcome some traffic trouble while altering course in the stretch. However, plenty of things still went right for him as he rode the rail for much of the way and benefited from a pace that totally collapsed in a result dominated by closers.
Given a much bigger price, I prefer THE J Y (#4), who did all of the dirty work setting those quick early fractions before giving way in the final furlong.
This Mark Hennig trainee actually didn’t run that badly in his prior start, when just missing a top-three finish after altering course in mid-stretch. I think he’s going to appreciate getting back to a one-turn mile, and I expect his connections to revert to stalking tactics in a race that features other speed types.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,8