In this races, I want to stick with the horses that have proven turf form. Performance Bonus (#3) is clearly the horse to beat off his two solid performances at this level. One could make a solid argument that he was facing a better field last time, and that that race is good enough to win against softer company today. However, Performance Bonus is going to be a very short price, and I think he faces at least one serious challenger.
I prefer CAVE JOHNSON (#7) given what should be a more attractive price.
He ran very well against some tough three-year-olds back in May at Belmont, and then may have been slightly hindered by a traffic-filled stretch run two back at Saratoga. After all, he was beaten only three lengths by next-out winners Our Way and Hockey School in that race. He’s in good form, and the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll get some pace to close into.
The other horse to throw in is Contradict (#6), who is a difficult read as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He earned a huge 112 speed figure at Aqueduct last fall, but that performance came over a quirky turf course late in the season.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,6
Trifecta: 7 with 3,6 with 3,6