They all have to beat the likely favorite, Emerald Pond (#2), who goes out for Chad Brown. She deserves some respect, but I’m not convinced that she really wants two turns or that she has that great of an edge over this field in terms of overall ability. The other horse to consider at a short price is Greywalls (#5), who is dropping out of tougher spots but may be going off form. We tend to see some unusual things happen in these one-mile turf races, and there’s a long shot in the mix that intrigues me.
REVERSIONTOTHEMEAN (#1) is coming out of a couple of tougher spots. She was badly overmatched against optional claiming company two back but actually didn’t even run that badly after a wide trip. Then last time, at Suffolk, she ran off in the early going, taking away from her finishing kick. This filly has been competitive at this level in the past and drew a great post position down towards the rail. I like the rider switch to Joe Bravo, and these connections, who tend to fly under the radar, have already connected with some big prices at this meet.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5