Cloud Control (#2) is the horse to beat, but he defeated a pretty weak field last time and must now stretch out around two turns for the first time. He actually may have run his best race two back when losing a close decision to the talented Cloontia before being elevated to the victory via disqualification. This is not the strongest field, either, but I think that some handicappers are going to perceive him as owning a greater class edge over this field than he actually does. Furthermore, I think there’s at least one horse in this race that will offer better value.
ROOFTOP VIEW (#1) will have a chance to post the upset if he can repeat his last race, in which he earned the highest last-out speed figure in the field. That day he was against a very slow pace (color-coded in blue) and was forced to angle wide into the stretch while the winner slipped through along the inside. This horse has been steadily improving all spring and I think he has a major upset chance in a fairly weak edition of this race. Michael Lauer is not a well-known trainer on this circuit, but he does get an 89 trainer rating with his turf routers, so his runners can certainly hold his own in these types of spots.
Beyond those two, the pickings are slim. The Pace Projector is predicting that Cuckoo’s Saloon (#7) has a chance to wire the field, but he was unable to take advantage of a slow pace two back when Rooftop View overcame the slow pace to run him down. Uno Emayo (#4) improved on turf last time, but is unproven at the distance, and the same goes for Go Go Lucky (#6), who has never raced beyond 7 furlongs.
Exacta Box: 1,2
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 4,6,7 with 2