Dads Caps (#2) is the horse to beat off his strong runner-up finish in the True North last month. He did have things his own way on the front end that day, but it was still encouraging to see him return to top form. Previously, he had run well in the Carter, but had badly disappointed in his three other 2016 starts. We’ll use the favorite, but we think this race is more wide-open than the morning line suggests.
Stallwalkin’ Dude (#1) ran plenty of competitive races earlier this year and would be a major player here if he can regain that form. Loki’s Vengeance (#3), who is very consistent on speed figures, will be right there if the favorite underperforms.
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which helps Dads Caps, but should also work to the advantage of MEWANNAROSE (#4).
This horse is coming off a minor layoff for Chris Englehart and may be set for a better performance than some might think. He had excuses for both of his runs in May, first encountering a wet track that he disliked and then chasing three-wide all the way around the turn at Monmouth. The chestnut had been in great form earlier this year, earning speed figures in the 120s, and is certainly good enough to beat this field on his best day. He does have to answer some questions, but I think he’s going to offer value in this spot.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,3,5,6