Economic Model (#6) is the horse to beat off his visually impressive score in the Easy Goer, in which he earned a career-best 117 speed figure. However, this race is no walk in the park, and he offers no value whatsoever at his even-money morning line price.
He figures to face a stiff challenge from Fish Trappe Road (#8), who earned the highest last-out speed figure in the race with his spectacular 125 speed figure runner-up performance in the Woody Stephens last time. He forced a fast pace (color-coded in red) every step of the way and was the only early player to be around at the finish. He handled a mile in last fall’s Sleepy Hollow over this course and is a major threat to the favorite.
We also have to consider Voluntario (#3), who has been a different horse since stretching out in distance. He earned a competitive 116 speed figure two back at Pimlico and probably could have won by a much larger margin if his rider had asked him in the final furlong last time.
Clearly, there are many intriguing participants in this race, but the runner that we think may offer the best value is TALE OF S’AVALL (#2).
One of the worst things that ever happened to this horse was winning his debut at Saratoga, because it got his connections thinking about some prestigious spots before he may have been ready for them. However, recently, he’s started to come around. He ran much better than it appears in the Woody Stephens after breaking slowly and getting unwisely rushed up down the backstretch into the fastest part of the race. He should handle this distance and may be set for his best effort yet.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,8