Araqeel (#8) figures to attract plenty of support once again despite the fact that he lost at a short price last month. Perhaps he found the 10 furlongs of that race to be too far for him, but he was still awfully dull in the stretch.
Liberty Holiday (#5) did not finish that far behind Araqeel two back at Gulfstream, but then did not handle a yielding course at Belmont in early May. It can sometimes take these South American imports a few starts to hit their stride. Bill Mott gets an 81 trainer rating when adding blinkers.
Eucalyptus (#1) and Circus Performer (#11) will be running on late if the pace heats up. The former may not have been beating the strongest field last time but did it in a professional manner. Circus Performer is unfortunately stuck out in a wide post, but he has run deceptively well in a few starts.
The main speed of this race is likely to be Zennor (#6), who returns from a lengthy layoff after breaking his maiden at Saratoga last summer. He did receive a favorable pace setup that day, but he still beat a decent field. He’s run well in both of his turf starts, and Kiaran McLaughlin gets a strong 91 trainer rating with horses returning from layoffs of this type.
Our top pick is a different runner coming off a layoff.
SECURITY RISK (#3) was very impressive when he broke his maiden at this meet last year. He couldn’t get back to that effort in two subsequent turf tries, but we feel that he had excuses. He could not overcome a very wide trip from an impossible post position in his first start against winners and then may not have cared for a rain-softened course in the fall. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, can have one ready off a layoff (81 trainer rating), and his tactical speed should have him in a good early position from this advantageous inside post.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,8,11