Emerald Pond (#8) will take money in this spot just because she’s a Chad Brown trainee dropping in class. However, we’re not convinced that this filly is actually a sprinter and are wary of backing her at a short price.
We instead are most interested in horses who raced at this level on May 22. Of those, the one that was most compromised by her trip that day was NILE PRINCESS (#1), who was steadied sharply at the break, losing a few lengths of position. She actually did well to regain contact with the field and finished up strongly to be third. She has prior turf races that make her a major player here, and we expect her to show more speed in her second start off the layoff.
Long Road (#3) will try to take these as far as she can up front, but she may not have been beating a field of any quality last time. She’s also no guarantee to get the seven furlong distance of this race. Sweet Corinna (#2) was a little wide last time, but had no apparent excuse to finish as poorly as she did. We’re skeptical of her chances to rebound here. Aussie Prayer (#5) makes plenty of sense, but we think Nile Princess will be able to turn the tables on her today.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,8