Readthebyline (#3) was made the favorite on the morning line, but we don’t fully trust this horse. He appeared to be tailing off over the winter, and, while he seemingly took a step in the right direction last time, the muddy track on that April 7 card was strongly favoring speed horses, which makes his performance look better than it was.
Of the potential speeds, we’re actually more afraid of Wildniteattheopera (#5), who outran his odds last time after a poor start, and Hunt’s Road (#2), who has been in great form and runs first off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez.
We’ll use both of those, but our top pick is ONECATS CHANCE (#6).
His last race was disappointing, but he was facing a much tougher field while coming off a two-month layoff. Chris Englehart gets a 79 trainer rating with horses making their first starts for his barn after a trainer switch, but a 100 rating when those horses run back for the second time. Onecats Chance had previously run speed figures that would make him very competitive here, and the price should be fair.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5