Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
8-1 on ML:
There is not a lot to work with in this race (or on this soporific and sterile card, for that matter). Trainer Scott Rollins has done some interesting work, on a tiny sample, with two-year-old first-time starters in Southern California over the last couple of years. This filly shows a workout pattern that is similar to his winners’, and sire Square Eddie has been effective in comparable situations. So we’ll keep an eye on this filly if, as we suspect, she turns out to be a big number.
Rodeo Drive Diva:
30-1 on ML:
We do not think she is quite as hopeless as she looks on paper. She is more along the lines of semi-hopeless or largely hopeless than utterly hopeless. So we will not exclude her entirely from supers at a mammoth price.
12-1 on ML:
Ran a nice number (107) down this hill off a layoff last year. Trainers love to put returning routers on this hill.
30-1 on ML:
Has the fastest last-out speed figure in the field by a big margin. Running back to it will be a considerable challenge. However, one horse has already exited the race and run back to her number. So we’ll give this one a shot—though we do not expect to get 30-1 here.
15-1 on ML:
Chance to make late run into super at big price.