Drop Shot (#7) is the only horse in this race to have run effectively over turf, which automatically makes him pretty formidable. That said, he still must prove that he can stretch out to this one-mile distance after finishing strongly going six furlongs last time. He ran decently enough going this far on dirt, but we still don’t want to take too short of a price on him.
Our top pick is first-time turfer NOBLE AND TRUE (#6).
Todd Pletcher has exceptional numbers switching horses from dirt to turf in maiden races, and this son of Giant’s Causeway is certainly bred to handle the switch, as a half-brother to two turf winners. This colt was green in the stretch of his debut but finished well over a track that was slightly favoring runners on the lead. Then last time he simply got rolling too late at Keeneland. He’s run some of the fastest speed figures in the race and should be able to handle this field if he successfully transfers his dirt form to the grass.
We could also use both Chad Brown firsters, Tricked Up (#4) and Dhukhr (#5), but would advise watching the tote board to see which one, if either, is live.
Win: #6, Noble and True, at odds of 2/1 or higher
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5,7 with 4,5,7