On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Saturday


>>Saturday May 14th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 1:


20-1 on ML:

D’Amato and Michael McCarthy seem to hold the aces in this grass MSW.  And the Baffert colt will take money. That should leave Horsty at a giant price. We think he ran a little better than it looks in his lone grass try, and his dirt sprint at Los Al was a big step forward. We will give him a chance to make a late run and complete the trifecta or the super.

Race 4:


6-1 on ML:

Ran two big races at Los Al and can pick up  a lot of tiring speed in a race that figures to be a mad dash out of the gate. Useful exotics horse who doesn’t get bet in the big leagues.

Race 7:

Thanksgiving Day:

15-1 on ML:

Trained poorly into his last start, and then broke poorly, made a quick advance, and was fried in a duel. Fits at this level and can run from just off the pace. Would not exclude from exotics if the price is huge.

Race 8:

The Lieutenant:

6-1 on ML:

Slight improvement from first start to second. Draws well here and is bred to go long.

Race 10:


8-1 on ML:

Back on grass here and figures to make the lead. Can run with these on her best.

Unusual Style:

12-1 on ML:

Last was not as bad as it looks. Draws well and can make a late run at a big price.

Race 11:


5-1 on ML:

Can win this with a clean break. Eliminated at the start last time. Still ran decently.

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