Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
6-1 on ML:
This field looks hollow once you get past the favorite on the rail. Scattagirl has some talent and can get involved in this off the layoff if Powell has her anywhere near ready off this uninspiring work pattern.
20-1 on ML:
Did not get away well in his debut. Quickly made up ground, and then battled to mid-stretch. Can get involved in exotics if going forward the way Stutts’ second-time starter (who exits the same race) did yesterday. The crowd will not play these connections.
8-1 on ML:
Fried in speed duel and had other trouble two back. Wide into hot fractions last time. Pace Projector shows him with a stalking trip today on the cutback. Can get into exotics with his usual effort plus a decent trip.
8-1 on ML:
She received a deceptively difficult trip in her first try with winners. Returned to train well. Has to overcome ghastly post but Sadler has been going pretty well. Threat to make late run into exotics.
30-1 on ML:
We believe he ran much, much better than it looks on paper. Was essentially eliminated on the backstretch and yet was trying to gain position late. Pace Projector shows him in touch with these early. Should be a huge price.
6-1 on ML:
Gelding is competitive here and gets an interesting rider switch. Useful exotics horse usually fires and should be able to get a trip from this post.
15-1 on ML:
We thought she handled the hill just fine in her debut. Way up in class here but has a shot at exotics if Sturdy One leaves her alone up front.