Assuming the rains are less severe than predicted and we’re still on turf at this point in the day, Sympathy (#1) is clearly the horse to beat. She’s been unlucky to lose both of her races in this country—first caught behind a slow pace two back and then on the wrong end of a headbob last time. Given the lack of speed in this race, the Pace Projector is predicting she’ll be on the lead in the early going, and such a pace advantage could make her awfully difficult to overtake.
While we respect her, we believe that one of the fillies that finished behind her last time will actually offer better value.
BEL CITRON (#8) was sixth in that April 9 Keeneland race, but we feel that her rider prevented her from having any chance to make an impact. Leparoux showed no urgency coming off the far turn and allowed Bel Citron to get shuffled all the way back to last at a critical point in the running. She actually finished up strongly once clear but had too much left to do. Her maiden win was a pretty good effort, and she’s certainly bred to get the distance, as a half-sister to Air Support, who won two graded stakes at 10 furlongs. Let’s hope Irad Ortiz can work out a trip because we believe she’s closer to Sympathy in terms of ability than the published form would suggest.
Exacta Box: 1,8