On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Thursday


>>Thursday May 12th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 Race 1:


6-1 on ML:

Two-year-old was green and very wide in her debut. That was a soft maiden race, and she figures to be terribly overmatched on the win end today. However, the crowd will not touch these connections, and this filly has a shot to make a late run into the bottom of exotics.

Race 4:

Stir Fry:

6-1 on ML:

Projects for a clear early lead in a race favoring speed. Has competitive speed figures. Had difficulty at the break last time. May find the distance a struggle, but that problem is obvious and will help her price. Has trained well for this.

Race 6:

Lexie Arleen:

10-1 on ML:

Visually impressive (though not very fast) at Los Alamitos and can get into exotics if running two alike. This may be her perfect distance.

Race 7:

J Serino:

10-1 on ML:

Ran an exceedingly odd race when disappointing at tiny odds at Los Al. He made the lead but put up no resistance when challenged—after fractions he should have handled. Draw a line through that race and you have a gelding who can be competitive at a big price on the cutback.

Race 8:

Back to Bako:

15-1 on ML:

Has run well down this hill and is capable of coming from behind in a race that figures to have a strong pace.

Majestic Kitten:

12-1 on ML:

Goes second off a long layoff for a sharp trainer and can make a late run at exotics if he doesn’t get left at the gate from this annoying post.

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