Preakness Speed Figures are up! See our comments on Exaggerator’s win + historic figs for the Journey to the Triple Crown

TimeformUS Speed Figures for the Journey to the 2016 Triple Crown

Click on the chart to make it a lot bigger.

DerbyTrail (5)

May 22nd Update:

  • Nyquist ran only marginally faster for the first 1/2 mile in the Preakness than he did in the Derby, 159 versus 152. However, he was clear on the outside in the Derby. He was dueling another horse for the lead in the Preakness.
  • Track will be coded in pink (mildly favoring speed) for dirt races on Preakness day.
  • A rematch in the Belmont of the top two would be extremely interesting. Almost assuredly there will be a lot less speed horses entered which could turn the tables back in Nyquist’s favor.

May 8th Update:

  • Nyquist’s 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure is solid, ahead of the 6-yr trailing average of 120.6
  • This year’s Kentucky Derby pace was very fast: Leader Danzing Candy’s quarter and half mile pace figs were 169 and 164.
  • Nyquist’s 152 half mile Pace Figure is comfortably the fastest opening ½ mile by a Derby winner since we started making figures in 2004.
  • Nyquist’s 123 was an upgrade from his TimeformUS Final Time Figure of 119: Our algorithms adjust for to reflect the impact of pace on a horse’s final time.
  • American Pharoah was assigned a 127 for last year’s Derby win.
  • Nyquist’s 123 matches the TimeformUS Figure for 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another, also trained by Doug O’Neill.
  • Some context from our KY Derby historic pace figure chart (click to enlarge):

DerbiesByPace

Some background on TimeformUS Speed Figures:

Historic Triple Crown Series Figures

Click on the chart to make it a lot bigger.

  • This is a look at the winning TimeformUS Speed Figures
    for the last 6 years of Triple Crown prep races as well as the winning figures ftwitter followor the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes for each 0f those years.
  • American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby? We rate it the fastest in the last 6 years. And his Preakness? We rate it second fastest. His Belmont? Fastest.
  • The top TimeformUS Speed Figure for any Triple Crown race of the last 6 years was I’ll Have Another’s 130 in the Preakness. The Factor ran the same figure in 2011 Southwest.
  • The Southwest at Oaklawn was run in 2 divisions in 2012; we’ve used the higher TimeformUS Speed Figure for the above chart.
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5 Responses to Preakness Speed Figures are up! See our comments on Exaggerator’s win + historic figs for the Journey to the Triple Crown

  1. Lenny Moore says:

    Gutierrez ride was silly. No excuse to be involved in a speed duel when you’re on arguably the best horse.

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  2. bob babstock says:

    exaggerator looks great and cherry wine also,nyquist looked like he ran out of steam

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  3. raybo says:

    I realize that CJ/TFUS takes into account trip and pace when he assigns speed figures. But, to give him the same speed figure as Exaggerator (122), simply because of the trip and pace, seems to be a bit biased, towards Nyquist. And then, to only give Cherry Wine a 116 when he beat Nyquist and had to come from way back? Yeah, I know, he should have run that fig, regardless, because he has beaten Exaggerator each time they met, bla bla bla. I’ve heard, or thought myself, all the comparisons between the two horses. Exaggerator was only 2 1/4 lengths back of that so called very fast pace at the 3/4m mark, after making up 4 1/4 lengths, again, against that so called very fast pace (only 46.56 at the 1/2m mark and a much higher 1:11.97 at the 3/4m mark), between the 1/2m mark and the 3/4 mile mark, and he went on to beat Nyquist by 3 1/2 lengths, that’s 4 3/4 lengths he made up, against that so called very fast pace, between the 3/4m mark and the finish! And Cherry Wine made up 7 1/4 lengths against that pace between the 3/4m mark and the finish, and nosed Nyquist, for 2nd. So, if Cherry Wine only deserves a 116 speed figure due to a so called very fast pace, then Nyquist should have gotten a speed figure of somewhere between 118 and 120, IMO, but not a 122, simply because Exaggerator wasn’t that far off that same pace at the 1/2m mark and certainly not that far back at the 3/4m mark. The trip between Nyquist and Exaggerator, was not that different, as Nyquist was not that much wider than Exaggerator, not really. I’d be interested to see the Trakus data on total distance run by both horses.

    In short, I think TFUS is doing the handicapper a disservice by awarding Nyquist the same speed figure as Exaggertor, given all the above. And, because of that, Nyquist will go off at low odds again in the Belmont. If Nyquist worked so hard in the Preakness then isn’t he likely to suffer some, form-wise in the Belmont? Well, if he goes off at low odds in the Belmont, there will of course be a bunch of figure cappers betting him in that race, because of that, IMO, inflated speed figure from the Preakness. When in fact, coming off such a “grueling” race, he could very well finish up the track, leaving a whole lot of pace and speed figure players crying in their beer.

    Yes, Nyquist ran a good race, until the stretch, where the rubber meets the road, but that’s as far as it goes. He got beaten soundly by the winner, and was also beaten by Cherry Wine. My suggestion? Change Nyquist’s 122 figure to 118-120 and let it go. Give Exaggerator and Cherry Wine their due, they deserve, at least, that..

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  4. Bob Soskis says:

    Have you ever done a speed figure work up on Dr Fagers’ mile world record run at AP?

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  5. rick be says:

    I tried to beat him,but he appeared dominant,Exaggerator wasn’t catching him yesterday & maybe not on his best day.The Preakness should be a walkover. But the Belmont always is a tough for a young horse.What’s the odds on him making it two Triple Crowns in a row?

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