Derby Speed Figures are up! See our comments on Nyquist’s Derby win + historic figs for the Journey to the Triple Crown

TimeformUS Speed Figures for the Journey to the 2016 Triple Crown

Click on the chart to make it a lot bigger.

DerbyTrail (4)

May 8th Update:

  • Nyquist’s 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure is solid, ahead of the 6-yr trailing average of 120.6
  • This year’s Kentucky Derby pace was very fast: Leader Danzing Candy’s quarter and half mile pace figs were 169 and 164.
  • Nyquist’s 152 half mile Pace Figure is comfortably the fastest opening ½ mile by a Derby winner since we started making figures in 2004.
  • Nyquist’s 123 was an upgrade from his TimeformUS Final Time Figure of 119: Our algorithms adjust for to reflect the impact of pace on a horse’s final time.
  • American Pharoah was assigned a 127 for last year’s Derby win.
  • Nyquist’s 123 matches the TimeformUS Figure for 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another, also trained by Doug O’Neill.
  • Some context from our KY Derby historic pace figure chart (click to enlarge):

DerbiesByPace

Some background on TimeformUS Speed Figures:

Historic Triple Crown Series Figures

Click on the chart to make it a lot bigger.

  • This is a look at the winning TimeformUS Speed Figures
    for the last 6 years of Triple Crown prep races as well as the winning figures ftwitter followor the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes for each 0f those years.
  • American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby? We rate it the fastest in the last 6 years. And his Preakness? We rate it second fastest. His Belmont? Fastest.
  • The top TimeformUS Speed Figure for any Triple Crown race of the last 6 years was I’ll Have Another’s 130 in the Preakness. The Factor ran the same figure in 2011 Southwest.
  • The Southwest at Oaklawn was run in 2 divisions in 2012; we’ve used the higher TimeformUS Speed Figure for the above chart.
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4 Responses to Derby Speed Figures are up! See our comments on Nyquist’s Derby win + historic figs for the Journey to the Triple Crown

  1. Greg Gentzler says:

    The TFUS speed and pace figures were the ONLY figures that made the race analysis clear. Nyquist’s ratings were too low as compared to the rest of the field on most all of the other figure providers. Your team and CJ are the best and its not even close. Thanks for the excellent work and please keep it up!!

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  2. Jim says:

    You guys have the race much faster than other ratings. The Beyer Speed figure was 103, two lengths below par. Steve Roman’s performance figures, which include pace, had the race three lengths slower than par. Using the Quirin scale I came up with a 109-106 for Nyquist. Which is an average pace and slow final number. All the dirt route races at Churchill were run very fast at the pace call and very fast at the final call on Saturday, so the variant was very high. You guys must have had a much lower variant.

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    • TimeformUS says:

      Hi Jim,

      Please remember our scale is not the same as other scales.

      Typically, the Timeform scale for 3-yr-old and up horses looks like this:
      140+ – An outstanding horse
      130–135 – Above average Grade 1 Stakes winner

      125–129 – Typical Grade 1 winner

      115–124 – Typical Grade 2 winner

      110–115 – Typical Grade 3 winner

      We actually don’t have this race as unusually fast. Nyquist is bumped up a bit because he attended such a fast pace.

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  3. imscoot says:

    Well Nyquist certainly has the numbers to backup his race in the Derby. I think he will have an easier time in the Preakness simply because there will be alot of Derby runners who will skip this race and show up for the Belmont. And other Trainers who have saved their horses and are aiming for the Belmont. As always the Belmont will be and should be the true test of are you a good horse or a Great One? Fresh well rested horses have crushed a many Triple Crown hopefuls dreams! Trainers have used this Fresh Horse for the Belmont tactic for years and years to try and take down the horse who has that one race left to win the Triple Crown. And until last year that Tactic has worked for them. But last year they encountered a Truly Great Horse! American Pharoah is the best horse to come along since Seattle Slew in my opinion. They both had that Will To Win and how to do it no matter how much rest they had between races. Or should i say Lack Of Rest? Is Nyquist in their class? See you at the Belmont and we will all find out??

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