Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
My Golden One:
15-1 on ML:
This race has come off the grass. This colt just ran better than looked in a grass race. The switch to dirt is problematic, but if his odds are gigantic, we would not exclude him from the super.
20-1 on ML:
He is way, way, way overmatched in here, and we try to avoid this barn. Accordingly, the extent of our endorsement will be to say that this gelding may run less poorly here. His trip last time was the kind you do not want when you’re overmatched.
4-1 on ML:
Tough trip in debut. Smart barn. Increased distance should help. Training well.
5-1 on ML:
Powerful speed figure in last start. Returned to train superbly.
8-1 on ML:
Horrible trip in minor stake last time. Finished up with way too much gas left in the tank. Can win this if getting a setup today.
10-1 on ML:
Was extremely impressive in her return. Came back to train superbly. Handles two turns. Needs to stay away from Songbird, both in general and as it pertains to the tactics of this race.
30-1 on ML:
Smart trainer shoots at the moon here. We think there is more horse here than we have seen to date. Would not exclude from supers at an elephantine price.
30-1 on ML:
Impressive against vastly cheaper. Would not exclude from bottom of super at huge price.