Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
6-1 on ML:
Former harness trainer brings this mare back on three days’ rest. Her “race” (such as it was) three days ago seems unlikely to have tapped her reserves, since she did basically nothing. Abrams is OK with this sort of tiny-rest move. We believe that Lirica Heat is as talented as any of these. But she will need a good pace to run at or lower exotics will probably be her limit.
9-2 on ML:
Has strong recent grass figures and has outrun his odds a few times on dirt. Has the speed to stay in touch, is in light, and is facing much easier. The rider will help the price.
Ree O Kerr:
8-1 on ML:
Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead on the switch to real dirt. If he can indeed clear off early, he might be able to hold on and be in the trifecta. The favorites look strong in here on the win end.
12-1 on ML:
Euro shipper fits with these on speed figures and draws a good post. She has trained pretty well off the layoff. Threat here at a price if ready off the bench.