While the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, it must be pointed out that there are more than a few runners that prefer to be positioned on or near the lead in the early going.
Of the speed horses, the one that we feel is best positioned to still be a factor at the end of the race is Cerro (#9). This horse has really blossomed in recent months and has proven that he’s equally adept in one-turn races. We like that he showed the ability to stalk last time, and he’s drawn well outside of all of the other speed types. Danny Gargan gets a 94 trainer rating first off the claim and a 100 rating when riding Kendrick Carmouche. Cerro will definitely be on our tickets.
The other horses that we want to focus on are mostly closers. While we’ll certainly use reliable late runners like Eighty Three (#4) and Nubin Ridge (#10), our top pick is long shot LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#6).
Life in Shambles ran deceptively well in his first start off the claim by Steve Asmussen. He found trouble at multiple points during the running and yet lost to today’s morning line favorite, Eighty Three, by only a couple of lengths. He’s done well around one turn in the past, and Steve Asmussen, a 74-rated first-off-the-claim trainer, gets an excellent 95 trainer rating with horses making their second starts off the claim. We acknowledge that Life in Shambles is a little slower than the other runners we mentioned, but we believe his last race was a clear step in the right direction, and he could be on the upswing.
Win: #6, Life in Shambles
Exacta Key Box:
6 with 4,9,10
6,9 with 6,9 with 4,10
6,9 with 4,10 with 6,9