Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
Fly Lexis Fly:
5-1 on ML:
Was fried on a nasty pace in his only try down this hill. He gets a huge rider switch to Bejarano, and he trained extremely well a week ago.
30-1 on ML:
Totally overmatched on paper and probably on the racetrack. Need at least double the ML before giving this one a chance to wake up 2nd off the layoff as he gets back on turf. If he does wake up, he has an outside chance to get into the bottom of the super at tremendous odds.
10-1 on ML:
We cannot stand the trips this gelding has been getting recently. We feel he is better than he looks on paper. Where that leaves him, should he get a non-awful trip today, well, we will see. But we do feel he belongs in here, and he is the longest price on the ML. Would not exclude from exotics on the rider switch.
6-1 on ML:
Handles grass and handles distance. Training quite nicely for Hollendorfer. She finds herself in a field that threatens to be salty, but we’ll give her a big shot at the trifecta if she avoids a speed duel with the Miyadi filly.